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The "riskiest" looking traders are usually the ones the yield the most profit. Last year, the EURUSD topped out at 1.51ish and has dropped since then. Maybe you could take a look what the COT report said during that time and paired it off with resistance at the 1.5000 region (very important psychological barrier). You could put a big 300 pip stop, which would've been roughly equivalent to the EURUSD's weekly average true range.
And how about those big hot shot traders who were saying the housing market would burst? They're swimming in cash now on their shorts.
