Resolved Question
When trading the news and a statement like actual greater than forecast or actual less than forecast.
when trading the news and a statement like actual greater than forecast or actual less than forecast then is one expected to buy or sell ?
about 1 year ago
Best Answer - Chosen by Asker
Well, this depends on the economic report you're looking at. For instance, if you're looking at an unemployment change report, then an actual greater than forecast would mean an increase in unemployment and could be bearish for that particular currency. If the actual is less than forecast, that would reflect an improvement in employment and could be bullish for that particular currency.
If you're looking at a retail sales report, then an actual greater than forecast could be bullish for the currency while an actual less than forecast could be bearish for the currency.
Just don't forget to first think about what the report could indicate and what the results could mean for the currency involved.
about 1 year ago
Answers (1)
Volatility is usually higher when the actual data is different from the market's consensus. For example, the Aussie usually moves higher when the actual retail sales figure of Australia is better than expected. The opposite happens when the actual number is lower. So if you believe that the retail sales of some country, for example, will come in better, then it is wise to place a long order before the data is released. You can also ride the price's initial move right after the release but you should be careful because sometimes the price also fades as traders take their profits.
about 1 year ago
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