Resolved Question
How can you find out when big currency orders are going to be placed in FOREX
Is it possible to find out big currency orders before they are executed?
10 months ago
Best Answer - Chosen by Voters
I'm just a retail trader who try to alive in this business. But please allo me to add what I've read and also from discussions with other fellow traders.
Not like stock market, Forex is non centralized market where the order may comes from all over the world since the product is the currencies which are used everywhere. So, it is hard (or even impossible) for someone to know how much is the total order for pairs traded.
But yes, there are some major networks who have potential to direct market move in a period of time. Sitting at the top of the layer is Mr Bernanke with his Fed car and followed with others CB (EU, BoE, BoJ, etc). You may hear from time to time for domestic reasons, CB tried to reduce market volatility, direct where currency goes, or just hold on some price level for inflation or export-import purpose.
The next layer is big commerce bank such as HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Citi Group and many others big guys (big boys) who try to make their own profits. These big guys usually has their own connection and joining together in a network what we called inter-bank network. Please do not address this term with one of fx broker out there. They are different thing though have same name. Note also that inter-bank is not a company or institution. It is just simply a network between players just like others network created in others business. The only different is their product is currencies.
And... regarding your question, for LIMITED condition the answer is YES, these big boys are able to see orders executed from their institutional client which usually send a big qty order. It is quite helpful because some of their big client also have their own analysts and they can compare with theirs.
If you are interested, please read links I gave you. Darkstar's post is one of legendary essay on FF. It will give you very good insight about the FX market structure. Technical Analysis Fallacy (another link) are made by Fti, one who retire as a CEO of large banks. He's generous enough to share his experience there. The discussion maybe too hazy but goes by time you will understand what he meant.
Just my 2 cents.
10 months ago
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Answers (1)
You can't. Most of the transactions in the interbank market are anonymous and unless you know someone on the inside who could give you this information, you have no way of knowing.
In the retail market, your best bet is this thing call the "order flow". The order flow allows you to see the number of long/short positions in the market at a certain given time. I must warn you though that this is DOESN'T provide a complete picture of the market at all because the sample size is so small!
10 months ago
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